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Old 11-16-2007, 07:39 PM
NajdorfDefense NajdorfDefense is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Manhattan
Posts: 8,227
Default Re: help me become a professional

1) Pick one conf of CBB, probably easiest sport to beat, and make it a small one like Ivy or MEAC or SWAC.
2) Read ALL available info on it, know who's graduating, transferred in and out, who's been arrested, who plays hurt, what coach is looking to leave, who has a drinking problem [Orton ldo], who is hated by teammates, is someone too close to the gambling community [Asu, bc, NW, ccny, Kentucky] everything.
3) Figure out where value lies on a certain game. Sure, taking Niagara at -2 close is better than -4 open, but that doesn't make it a value ALONE. Just because Fannie Mae is at a 10-yr low doesn't mean you should put your pension $$$ in there.

e.g. Team xyz is 1-4 in conf, playing a 3-2 team at home.
But, 4 losses in final minute and 10-pt home win over other 3-2 conf team. Team xyz is 5 pts. Is the line off because lazy bookies /bettors say 'Oh, 1-4 v 'good' 3-2 team - line should be 4-6 tonite, etc.'
Generally, an easier one to spot will be like a 4-2 team that 'should' be 6-0, but had bad luck. Or a team that very often covers at home month-in and out. Or a 5-5 team that is covering every spread or just missing by 1-2, clearly that is a good spot to look for value.

4) Before thremp's head explodes, NOW go lineshopping! Take the undervalued team AND the best line.

5) Track the open to overnight to afternoon to tipoff closign lines. Does money come in on Harvard/Stanford because WallSt traders come home after work and bet bet bet without caring for the spread? Does the smart money keep coming in 15 mins before tipoff? Can you get a huge middle on totals from Open to Close like mt2r and I did on VMI last year?
6) Develop a sense of how the lines will move, now if some player gets injured or team suffers devastating home loss or car crash or suspension, you should be able to react as fast as anyone else to that info. Those extra points and half-points add up. This is the hardest part.
7) Figure out which teams will pose a problem for other OOC teams based on style of play like VMI, UAB, Syracuse, Air Force, et al. Does the 'press' team always press, or do they often back off top PGs because they get broken down? That will affect the totals if not the spread for sure! Etc.
8) If you think the line is fair, but find a rogue line, just keep taking the cheap side. No-brainer.

Lineshopping is much easier and faster, particularly if you think the books have the number right on big - ACC, Big East, B10, etc. But with solid 'capping, I can find values I'm willing to make serious %BR bets on that I otherwise would not [this does not happen overnight]. Combine with Kelly = profit.

Calling a line move by 1-2pts from open + line shop for extra half-full point is a huge advantage. Rinse, repeat.

Finally, BR mgmt is the most important skill to have regardless of what some people will tell you. You can get in 2pts better than close and lose 9-10 games in a row...I did just last season. Variance happens.
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