You're making a TON of assumptions about Houston.
You have pretty much two minutes of footage on him.
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people overestimate Alexander's striking game. He isn't exactly a crisp, technical boxer.
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No, he's not a highly technical boxer. But he's trained by a muay thai world champion. He's got a lot better stand-up than you assume he does, and a lot better technique than you've seen in the two minutes you've seen.
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But the thing is that even if he's NOT getting the best of the clinch, if he starts taking the worst of it, it'll simply lead to a takedown
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Up against the fence in the clench, how exactly will this lead to a takedown? Silva can't pull guard up against the fence. he won't be able to change levels to go for a leg with Houston controlling his head and throwing inside.
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which is where he's clearly the dominant fighter. His ground game is good, Alexander's is not. I think everyone can agree that if this fight hits the mat with Silva on top, Alexander's chances are quite low.
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this is where you make serious assumptions about something you have no clue about, unless i seriously underestimate your information sources [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
I'm not saying Houston is a BJJ blackbelt. he's not.
But strength, power, athleticism, and really really good wrestling skills combined with approx six months of hard BJJ training from one of the best BJJ coaches in the world... he's got a lot better ground game (especially defensively) than you or anyone else give him a chance.
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5) If this gets into round 2 or 3, will he have anything left?
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Houston has fantastic cardio. He's one of the most athletic guys in the UFC right now. What do you base his cardio questions on? The fact that he dumped adrenaline AFTER he won his second major UFC fight and was breathing hard in the post-fight interview? Or did he look really gassed after destroying Jardine in a minute? Or Sakara in a minute?
Silva has a highly suspect gas tank. he gassed _hard_ against Drwal early in the second round.
The longer this fight goes, the more it is Houston's advantage.
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I'm curious as to why you like Houston so much in the fight, since I really respect your opinion when it comes to the fight game.
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If you've been following all of my stuff on Houston over at Junkie (if not, start with my latest
Houston Alexander interview and roll back through the previous intereviews which are linked there). I've been inside his training camp, extensively, since UFC 71. I know who he's training with. I know what he's doing inside camp, and how hard he's working. I've seen him on the ground, extensively, working with all-american NCAA wrestlers (not hard to find in Nebraska) and a world-class Jiu Jitsu instructor.
It's all based on inside information, i guess -- but its really obvious (to me) that a lot of people are underestimating Houston. Everyone thinks for whatever reason he's got a suspect gas tank. Everyone thinks he's got no ground game. All based on assumptions because he's tatooed and black, I guess, that he must be a random street brawler.
He's been fighting for a long, long time. He's got a top-tier coaching staff behind him. He's going to answer a lot of questions this weekend, hopefully. I'm very much hoping that his coaching staff is correct and the weakness they belive they've ID'd in Silva will result in the one minute KO again -- because its just going to give me yet another opportunity to likely bet on an underrated Houston Alexander in the future. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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Of course, all the positive stuff I've said above -- this is not the lock of the century. If I thought Houston should be a -400 favorite you'd see me putting a WHOLE lot more on it. I do think he's a very good bet around -150, and you can imagine how hard I actually hit the line when it opened around -115.
I probably won't start to buy back on Houston unless I can get Silva around +165 or +170, if that gives you an idea of my estimate of the true value of this line.