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Admittedly, I didn't watch him at all last year. But isn't it true that he's basically limited to DH now? If so, would you really expect his production to be better than the average DH?

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Uhh, yeah, I would expect his production to be awesome compared to most DHs actually, and he'd probably be better than last year because he doesn't have to wear himself out playing the field. Even if he hit a little worse and missed some time he'd still be a stud. Have you looked at who some teams start at DH these days?