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With the line the took, I just don't see how you can fold. You are only priced out against his worst case hands. People who take awkward lines rarely have only the nuts in their ranges. I don't think that this is a big money maker, but there are just too many hands that you beat outright to just fold given that you have redraws to the nuts. People get all in with 45. People bluff. They just do. If your equity against their worst case is within 5% of what is being offered, look 'em up. People who take those sorts of lines are going to turn up atrocious hands often enough to make up for that 5%.
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you're putting in 23.35 to win 38.95, and to me that seems like an overall loser in this spot given that you're generally a 2:1 dog in this spot.
Add in some strange hands, like 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and that number definitely comes closer to to 2.3-to-3.9, depending on how many more you can add.
However, I do think that you've raised a valid point in that we have a tendency to try and draw too many conclusions about a "villain" based on PT stats.
There's lots of hands that come through here, but not enough quality reads or information that would push the decisions clearly to + or - EV. I guess it's inevitable given the way you play poker online + multitable, but it does lower the overall quality of the posts in the forum.
I could happily go the rest of my life without seeing, "no reads, xx/xx/xx" or "villain is unknown, 1st hand at the table"...
