[Viscant]

Here are my thoughts about the Silva/Alexander fight.

For one, people overestimate Alexander's striking game. He isn't exactly a crisp, technical boxer. Very few people are in the MMA game, so that's not (necessarily) a huge knock. He tends to flail a bit and that's usually OK because his clinch game is good. I see that as a bad thing in this fight because while in other fights, ending up in the clinch is either a bad thing or somewhat neutral, the clinch is a bad position in this fight.

As a Chute Boxe fighter, I guarantee that Silva is well versed in the clinch. But the thing is that even if he's NOT getting the best of the clinch, if he starts taking the worst of it, it'll simply lead to a takedown, which is where he's clearly the dominant fighter. His ground game is good, Alexander's is not. I think everyone can agree that if this fight hits the mat with Silva on top, Alexander's chances are quite low.

So that's how I see it. The questions the fight have to answer for me are:
1) Will Alexander be able to knock him out with an early rush, or box conservatively enough to avoid a takedown.
2) If no, will Alexander be able to dominate the clinch?
3) Whether 2 is true or not, will he be able to avoid a takedown from the clinch?
4) If taken down, can he avoid being submitted?
5) If this gets into round 2 or 3, will he have anything left?

I see enough 'no's here to make Silva my pick. I respect Houston's game a lot and that's why I wanted to try and get +150 on this, but I think there's still enough edge at +130 to make this worth my bet.

For the sake of fairness my worries are
1) Silva tries to bang with Alexander and like you said, goes to sleep in a minute or two.
2) Silva plays ultra passive and keeps away (which by my estimation basically does Houston's job for him) instead of engaging
3) Silva pulls guard. While it sounds strange that I wouldn't want a BJJ black belt to pull guard, I worry that if he pulls guard and works for an arm or triangle too quickly, Houston will pass him and at the very least win the round (at worst damage him). Silva's top game is worlds better than his bottom game.


That's my thoughts on the fight. I'm curious as to why you like Houston so much in the fight, since I really respect your opinion when it comes to the fight game.