[PantsOnFire]

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My second question is how do you accurately quantify the likelihood of the person bluffing with certain holdings of his range? Intuition and history? That's obviously the tough part but are there any tips or tricks to be shared?


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Intuition is usually a subconcious recall of history. That's not something we can really share with each other on how do that other than soak up as much info as you can and try to store it.

Apart from knowing the player, there are several bluffing situations that are common. Since we are talking about the river here, one of the most common is the missed draw. Aggressive players will step right in if they sense any weakness on the turn or the river and bet out a missed draw.

Another common situation is when the river is a card that could have helped on or more hands. An A on the river is a good one. A draw card filling a flush or a straight is another good one.

How you are perceived by other is also a factor in how often you will be facing a bluff. From the sounds of it, if you are folding a lot to river bets, you may be setting yourself up as a weak/tight target.

A checkraise on the river is usually not a bluff. On the other hand, if you feel you are getting run over a bit, try a checkraise bluff yourself. It will sure get the other player's attention. If you get caught, checkraise for value next time. If you don't get caught, your check will get a lot more respect.

When out of position, try some blocking size bets. A raise will only be a bluff from a maniac or a very sophisticated player.

Sometimes the size of the river bet will be in relation to whether it's a value bet, a teaser bet or a bluff.

There's more but I'm running out of ink.