[jk3a]

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fwiw, because we're a bit deep, shoving is -EV if his calling range is KK+,AKo,AKs. Basically we've got 229 behind with a 90 dollar overlay which means we'd be getting 1.4:1 on a shove when he's calling. 1.4:1 requires approx. 42% equity and QQ has only 40% equity against that calling range.

So don't say shove, cause he's not calling JJ here.

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You can't just calculate the ev vs his calling range, assume you get called 100% and call a shove -ev. I'd shove here every time vs him. He does goofy fps stuff fairly often in my limited play vs him.

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I know that. Should of mentioned sooner. Here is a copy of one of my later posts:






319*.4 + .6*-229 = -9.8

x(90) + (1-x)(-9.8) = 0
x = ~10%

means he has to be bluffing > 10% to make shoving +EV.

If he's bluffing 20% of the time here, we stand to net ~$18 in EV.




I wish I could do a reasonable EV calculation for calling, but there are so many factors that I think it would be rather difficult.