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Old 11-16-2007, 03:48 PM
PantsOnFire PantsOnFire is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,409
Default Re: Is there a way to tell whether they made a straight?

Here are some things to consider.

1. The pot bet on the flop was good because it was into two players and you want to find out what's up. I presume SB folded and now you know MP1 is interested. At this point he could have a straight draw, a flush draw, Kx, AQ, AJ, 66 or perhaps JJ if he is passive.

2. There is no need to make a pot bet on the turn. If he is on a draw, a bet of .40 is enough to make his call incorrect.

3. There is no need to bet the river. If he had Kx, he won't like that A. If he had a flush draw, he will fold to any bet. If he had 66 or JJ or QT, you are simply going to call his bet since it might be a bluff. Actually, these are the times where you can now fold a good hand on the river if you feel his bet is meaningful. He likely would just check Kx. He may bluff a missed flush draw. But more likely, he will bet with a better hand than you have.

4. If this player is loose, you might have moved all-in on the turn. This would make his call a collossal mistake and his A on the river very lucky. These are situations you want. Forget about whether he gets one of his eight outs. You want to have players nailed to the wall and him calling an all-in turn bet would do just that.

Edit: By the way, your subject question is not one you should be asking. You will never be able to say exactly what this guy has like QT and that's what you are asking. You need to ask what are all the hands he could have, like I did in my point 1. Then you start assessing the likelyhood of each of these. Then you need to assess which of these hands you beat and which beat you. If you find there are lots of hands that beat you and one that you beat, well you should fold. If you find lots of hands you beat and one that beats you, well then bet or call.

One of the few things you'll notice watching poker on TV that is actually useful for us is when the announcer says "Joe Blow is facing a river bet but all he can beat is a bluff." This means the hand played out such that the entire villain range of hands are all better than whan Joe is holding (except a bluff). So at that point, the player should assess the likely percentage of a bluff from this particular player at this particular time, look at the pot odds and decide if calling is profitable.
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