Re: First hand of a $2.20MTT pp99 Too aggressive?
I still think the math favors check-calling if he never calls your shove worse. If he bets two-thirds of the pot on a non-ace river, you're getting 2.5:1 to on a call, and you're easily good enough of the time (30 percent would be needed) there to call it, versus the 75-80 percent of the time he needs to not have an overpair to shove profitably. Keep in mind that if he has AK, he probably just didn't call the flop to peel a card -- he likely decided to try to take it away on the river it if you showed weakness on the turn and he didn't make the winning hand.
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