[kyro]

Adding 1u on Cin/Ari O48.5

I've been waffling on this one, which means I should probably lay off, but my analysis points to this going over.

Both teams have gone over 48.5 total points 3 times each this season. However, in Cinci's 6 games that didn't go over 48, they were playing the Steelers, Pats, Ravens twice, Chiefs and Seahawks, who are ranked 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th and 10th in DVOA defense, respectively, and in 3 of those games (Pats, Ravens, Chiefs), the total was 47. Against the Bills (14th), Browns (26th) and Jets (32nd), they had totals of 54, 96, 69.

On the flip side, the Cardinals have played two above average offenses (Steelers/Bucs who are 2nd/12th in defensive DVOA), and in the one game where they played a team whose average total was 44+, (Lions), they won 31-21.

I think the reason this total isn't closer to 50, is because the Cardinals have played relatively low-scoring games, but we have to take into account the fact that they've been playing pretty terrible offenses for the most part. This game should be very similar to the Arizona/Detroit game last week. I'm staying away from the spread, but putting 1u on the over.