Re: 20/40 I\'m a Payoff Machine
The SB's range seems to me to mostly consist of hands that whoop your a$$. I think this is an easy river fold.
In general, I don't give an unknown credit for check-raising the flop with the lone J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I give him even less credit for pushing it the whole way trying to get you off a hand. The K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is obviously a possibility, but IMO, it's a relatively small part of his range. It seems unlikely that an unknown who would flat call a button raise from the SB will all of a sudden get cute with a bare flush draw and bluff it the whole way. Sure, a few select players are tricky in that weird way, but you have no evidence that the SB here is of that mold.
I think his range is far more polarized to a made flush with two random suited cards, an ace, two pair, or 555 (FWIW, I think a queen is a pretty small part of his range; again, is a player who flats a button raise from the SB c/r'ing middle pair on a monotone flop?). Your equity seems very bad on the river, and I honestly don't think it's especially good on the turn either, because you can't play perfectly on the river no matter what card hits.
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