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Old 11-16-2007, 01:23 AM
jay_shark jay_shark is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,277
Default Re: ROI in Heads up Sit and go

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You may want to check this post for more details .

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...;Main=11851416

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Read most of it; what about cash games? How many hands before your HU winrate is accurate to within 1/10BB of your BB/100?

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Let x be the number of hands needed to be within 1bb/100 of your hypothetical win rate . So if we believe that we win 10bb/100 hands and our standard deviation is 110bb/100 hands , then the number of hands needed at 2 standard deviations is :

10+-2*(110/sqrt(x/100))
So we want 2*(110/sqrt(x/100)) =1
sqrt(x/100)=+-2*110
sqrtx=+-2*110*10
x=4 840 000

This means that even after 4 840 000 hands , you are 95% confident that you're within 1 bb/100 of your true win rate . This is one of the reasons why nobody really knows their true win rate because they usually change limits before they can draw any conclusions from it .

You can imagine how many more hands you would need to play to be within (1/10bb)/100 hands.
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