[mythrilfox]

because him overbetting the river drastically changes his range? i don't see why the two are mutually exclusive. you seem to be implying that if we get all-in by check/calling an overbet shove on the river or by check-raising turn and getting all-in in that manner our expectation would be the same, but i don't see why that's the case - at all. check/raising the turn gets value from worse hands, but that option goes out the window for the most part once he shoves the river like this, because he's rarely shoving worse here IMO.