[Makonnen]

This is a straight math question, right?

Say he calls a raise to $6 70% of the time, and calls the all in 20% of the time. Say in both cases you lose 1% of the time and chop 5% of the time.

LOL. Math is so rigged: with those assumptions, the EV of both is EXACTLY THE SAME. $3.84.

So, that's the tipping point: If you think he calls the $6 more than 70% or the a/i more than 20%, there's your decision.