Thread: Cbet? Turnbet?
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Old 11-15-2007, 08:07 PM
StellarWind StellarWind is offline
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Default Re: Cbet? Turnbet?

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With that low of an aggression factor I'm pretty sure you're toast if you get c/r so you can easily b/f. If you're going to call the river anyway you're putting in 1 more bb on this hand. IMO the turn is definitely the correct place to use this because your opponent is awful. He will float the flop with a lot of hands. Why give him a chance to catch a pair to win?

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This analysis does not consider that everytime Villain checks a better hand on the river you save a bet compared to betting the turn and taking a free showdown. Probably he only bets the river with a ten or an ace so that's going to be a lot of bets.

Actually he may not bet an ace. Why? Because if Villain were you he might check with an ace after the scary pair turns. Now as BB he is likely to project his fearful view of poker onto you and assume you might not bet a good ace either. So in his twisted view of reality it isn't safe to bet the river with a weak ace.

Strangely, the reason you might call this river is because he's passive. I really doubt you could afford to payoff an aggressive value bettor who bets this river with almost everything that has you beaten. There are just so many made hands and for most players the amount of bluffing just won't make that up. This is especially true if the river is only semi-blank and may make or pair up some low-end straight draws.

But since Villain is going to miss many of these value bets while still bluffing many of the same hands the odds on a call probably improve enough to be worthwhile.
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