Re: Warning micro micro: Gross turn and river
[ QUOTE ]
The thing about folding this river is that for us to be behind he has to have called the flop with nothing
[/ QUOTE ]
It wouldn't shock me if he called the flop with like Ah3h, although obviously since Greg has 5h he can't have any other similar hand. I think it's not uncommon at this level for some players to consider calling based on the absolute size of the bet rather than pot odds. They will call 15c on the flop with bottom pair or a backdoor flush draw because "it's not too much and I could spike an ace or a draw on the turn, or he might just be bluffing and will give up".
Without a read other than "villain is passive" I don't think this is an easy decision either way. In this situation, a big factor for me would be whether I thought he had any particular read on me. If he's seen me take this kind of line with something like TPGK (although I would only take this line with TPGK based on a read), or if I've been caught bluffing the river recently or have otherwise been very aggro and I think he's getting annoyed, then it leans towards a call since he might view 2 pair as the nuts. It would have to be a strong read though and recent, not something that happened 50 hands ago. With no read, a fold is probably better.
It's a cliche that most villains at this level are only playing their cards, but my experience has been that a lot them do notice and react to aggressive play, although they usually do so in a pretty exploitable way, so it's helpful to pay attention to how people react to your image.
One other thing: one of the concepts at the end of NLHE:TAP is the idea that a big river bet or raise is usually a more immediate and reliable source of information than other things you know, so without a read to indicate otherwise, that raise really does scream that he has a flush, even though he had to play rather wackily to get to the river. Normally it's wrong to put a villain on a hand rather than a wider range, but in this case the strength of information coming from that river raise is strong enough you probably can define a very narrow range for it most of the time, even though you would never play the flop/turn this way with that range yourself.
This is rather long and rambly. Sorry about that.
|