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if a reputable pollster with a standard moe says Guiliani is polling at 24% and Paul is polling at 16%, I'd happily give 50 to 1 on a "Paul will win" bet. "Paul will win every time" in that scenario is beyond laughable.
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Srsly.
I just noticed that
Real Clear Politics which compiles poll data has recently added Paul to the candidates they track. It shows him as 6th Nationally and in Iowa and 5th in New Hampshire. I share DVaut's faith in polling, so I'm offering $100 bets if you can do Stars transfers:
1. Paul's NH vote count will be less than 12%
2. Paul's NH vote count will be within 4% of wherever the RCP NH average has him on election day (with data from immediately before the election).