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but if Giuliani is polling at 24% and Paul is polling at 16%, Paul is going to win pretty much every time.

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Polling is hardly ever quite this bad, especially in a Presidential election or primary where tens of millions of dollars are poured into polling. Maybe in a local school board election, mayoral race, or some other small local election, you'll see pollsters completely miss the mark, but if a reputable pollster with a standard moe says Guiliani is polling at 24% and Paul is polling at 16%, I'd happily give 50 to 1 on a "Paul will win" bet.

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Intrade.com you can sell $10,000's of pon paul for much better than 50-1 odds and he's polling way less than 16% from a bunch of reputable posters.

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Well, maybe I misunderstood scary tiger, but I thought he meant something like "if it's Giuliani vs Paul and the night before an election and Giuliani is polling at 24% and Paul is at 16%, Paul is going to win everytime because of the huge swath of voters out there all the pollsters will miss and will turnout for Paul", then that's ludicrous and I'd happily spread big odds Guiliani would win in that scenario.

If scary tiger means something like "Candidate X is at 24%, Candidate Y is at 16%, and it's November and the first primary election is in March" or something -- ie., what the Intrade market trading on, then that's entirely different -- and yes I understand that. See John Kerry & Howard Dean.