[tomdemaine]

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but if Giuliani is polling at 24% and Paul is polling at 16%, Paul is going to win pretty much every time.

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Polling is hardly ever quite this bad, especially in a Presidential election or primary where tens of millions of dollars are poured into polling. Maybe in a local school board election, mayoral race, or some other small local election, you'll see pollsters completely miss the mark, but if a reputable pollster with a standard moe says Guiliani is polling at 24% and Paul is polling at 16%, I'd happily give 50 to 1 on a "Paul will win" bet.

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Intrade.com you can sell $10,000's of pon paul for much better than 50-1 odds and he's polling way less than 16% from a bunch of reputable posters.