Re: 10/20 River Decision with Broadway
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So Joe, reading your last three posts:
You believe the correct play is to 3-bet the river and fold to a 4 bet, yes?
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Yes. I'm fairly sure every live 4-bet I've paid off on the river HU has been a loser. Like 99%, maybe once, someone misread their hand. (not counting chop hands obv)
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The only times I have been paid off in 10/20 live when my opponent 4-bet was when I had the nuts (straights) and they didn't. In one case it was a woman who overplayed her 2nd nut straight thinking my 3-bet was a set. In the other case it was a guy who was blind in one eye and his vision wasn't much better in the other. He thought he had the nuts but misread his hand.
While I think it is extremely likely that a 4-bet has us beat here (either AQs or ATs clubs), and is virtually never a bluff, I would call it anyway. Villain could have a set of Aces (or possibly Kings) and think we have a set too. He might have missed or dismissed the backdoor flush based on the way we played the hand so far.
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