[DVaut1]

[ QUOTE ]
but if Giuliani is polling at 24% and Paul is polling at 16%, Paul is going to win pretty much every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Polling is hardly ever quite this bad, especially in a Presidential election or primary where tens of millions of dollars are poured into polling. Maybe in a local school board election, mayoral race, or some other small local election, you'll see pollsters completely miss the mark, but if a reputable pollster with a standard moe says Guiliani is polling at 24% and Paul is polling at 16%, I'd happily give 50 to 1 on a "Paul will win" bet. "Paul will win every time" in that scenario is beyond laughable.