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Old 11-15-2007, 10:44 AM
sapsuckah sapsuckah is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Steals gone bad
Posts: 536
Default Re: whats your play ???

Yes, this is completely read dependent and it depends just as much on BB's read on you (as Raven said) as on your read on him (as Kenny said).

If I'm the BB there with his stack, I'd be itching to make a move like this with a very wide range IF you have been at all aggressive (and it wouldn't be out of character for you to be stealing blinds there). But if he's been straightforward or if you've been tight, that narrows his range.

So let's try two:

Loose BB range: 77+,A7s+,KTs+,ATo+,KQo: Your AQ has 52% equity and this is obviously an easy call.

Tight BB range: TT+,AJs+,AQo+: You have 37% equity.

Pot odds are:

If SB folds, about 1.6:1... you need to win about 38% of the time ti break even, so you're getting appropriate odds. And given that he may not be this tight, I think this is a pretty clear call.

But what about it the SB comes along? Now your pot odds are about 2.3:1. Any ideas on a range for him on 11 BBs calling pf and then calling a push and a call? I'd have to think it would be pretty tight unless he's been loose and donkish. I'm going with 88+,AJs,AQo (too tight here? too loose?)

Anyway, vs this tight range (and using the looser range for the BB) you now have 26% equity and would need to be getting 3:1 for the call to be correct (which you're not).

So the presence of the SB in the pot complicates this immensely.

All things considered, I think I call here. Tough spot though.

Regardless, you shouldn't be raising without a plan for what you're going to do if you get repopped behind you (and stack sizes make that very probable here).
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