Re: Huge Value in CFL
not sure what the deal is with these lines, and I have limited knowledge of teams at this point. Toronto is hosting the Grey Cup, so they would HFA vs Saskatchewan (but Sask has batshit insane fans ... only travelling fans in the CFL).
As one would expect in a small league it's not uncommon for the teams getting the 1st round bye to get upset. 18 game seasons with 8-9 teams in the league and you get a chance to pad your win totals vs certain types of opponents
Did some digging, since 1990
Road teams in the Div finals are 11-23
7 times the Grey cup winner was a Div finals road team.
Home teams in the Div final who are the Grey Cup host have a history of choking: 2-5 since 1990 ... but I'm pretty I've read that historically they have always fared poorly. This years game is basically sold out though so there's no excess stress on TO to get in so this thing can be a financial success.
Reg season records:
BC 14-3-1
SASK 12-6
TORONTO 11-7
WINNIPEG 10-7-1
TOR started the year like 2-6 though when Mike Bishop from KSU (yes his football IQ is still as bad now as when he was with New England ... hell of an arm though). BC played their 3rd string QB most of the year (Jarius Jackson - tOSU right?) and still won a tonne of games. Heard on the radio during my commute that Sask is really beat up on D and at RB.
My guesstimate on potential spreads for the final:
BC -2 vs Toronto, -10 vs Winnipeg
Tor -5 vs Sask
Sask -3 vs Winnipeg
I'd be inclined to make a small play on both road teams, but I have no way of quantifying the edge. I don't think the value is "huge". No idea on the spread to moneyline conversion in the CFL either.
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