[iggymcfly]

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Iggy, I'm betting Oregon, but I gotta say as a Duck fan this is the most dangerous game remaining on Oregon's schedule. Our defense likes to give up big passing plays and Arizona's qb is a pretty decent passer. As to the Stanford and Washington games ... you actually saw those games, right? The one where Stanford led in the second quarter, and the one where Washington matched the Ducks score for score until the 4th? It would have been very, very easy to Oregon to fail to cover in either of those two games. That said, Oregon's beat the spread this season every single game except Cal, and I think the Ducks win by more than 12 more often than not here.

(If I could stomach betting against my own team, I would parlay the Arizona ML with the over, as I think that's the only way Arizona ever wins here.)

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Well, the Oregon/Stanford game wasn't on TV anywhere except Eugene. I remember because Oregon was one of my larger bets that week and I was trying to follow the score on GameCast while I watched a movie.

Still though, wasn't the general story of the game "Oregon lets down after getting an early lead on the road, then blows Stanford away in the 2nd half when they realize they could be in danger of losing? That was the week before the Cal game too and I think that motivation was a definite issue.

The Arizona game is on national television, coming off a bye, and I think the Ducks should absolutely be motivated to give 100% effort.

With all that said, this line isn't moving on air, and it doesn't appear to be moving on public money either. I feel way less confident about Oregon covering 11 with this line movement than I would about them covering 14 if that had been the opener and had held all week.