[fmxda]

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he won't be as good as Arod, but you also don't need to make a commitment well into someones decline years.

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I would argue that Mike Lowell's decline years are now.

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he choices aren't a) bring back Arod or b) trade Joba and Hughes for Cabrera. you could sign Mike Lowell, who is a decent .300 eqa guy and + defender, for 4 years at 50% of Arod money. he won't be as good as Arod, but you also don't need to make a commitment well into someones decline years. or, you don't need to sign a big $ FA at all. you can decide that its in your best long terms interest to go with neither Arod nor Cabrera nor Lowell, and just bring back an average guys like Betemit to be your 3b. this won't win you more games next year, but it does leave you a whole lot more flexible for next year/s.

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A rebuilding year works if there are pieces in place for a championship run in the future. Since the Yankees don't have such players, particularly on the offensive side, eventually you will be spending cash or trading somewhere down the line. I think it is fair to boil down the decision to sign A-Rod down alternatives found in free agency or trades.

Thus my argument is that the A-Rod signing is one of the best actions the Yankees can do to keep themselves competitive year after year. Yes, I realize that years 6-10, when A-Rod is 38+, he will be terribly overpaid and the Yankees would certainly be better off without him, in a vacuum.

Let's exclude any trades for a second to simplify. I'm sorta presuming, given the constraints of who is going to be up for free agency (i.e. teams lock up their good young stars), that for the next 3-4 years alone, there is no possible better production the Yankees could get with that ~27 million or whatever A-Rod is getting paid. Lowell (@ mid-teen millions / year) + whatever pitching/bats you can get for another $10-15M is not going to match A-Rod IMO. And then Lowell's contract expires in 4 years, then you are subject to the vagaries of the free agency once again, most likely overpaying a veteran in a long contract if it's a seller's market. You may argue that these 4 years give the Yankees time to roll the dice with the farm system and develop a phenom, but this is just as possible with A-Rod manning 3rd base.

With regard to trades, I may be overestimating the price the Yankees' will need to pay to get a trade done for an All-Star; I think it is a similar situation that you're not getting good yearly EV in the next 10 years. I haven't thought this out though, so I might be totally wrong.

Also, the true cost of A-Rod's contract is likely overstated, as it probably makes a lot of sense financially to have a sure-fire HoF'er and perennial MVP candidate on your team in your new park and probably setting records and drawing massive attention down the road.