Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
ok I just did a bunch of math for this with a calculator.
Fev = future equity (which I have due to 2 poor players with short stacks).
(1) Before the hand:
My equity: $699.8 + Fev
Joe's equity: $666.9 + Fev
(2) If I fold AKo.
My equity: $680.8 + Fev
Joe's equity: $707.5 + Fev
(3) I call AKo. Assuming I'm 60/40 vs. his range. (could be higher considering he folds his worst hands and probably doesn't push AA/KK.)
(3a) I win.
My equity: $939 + Fev
Joe's equity: 0
(3b) I lose.
My equity: $199.3
Joe's equity: $915.6 + Fev
Total: (.6)($939 + Fev) + (.4)($199.3) = $643.12 +~(.5)Fev
and Joe's: (.4)(915.6 + Fev) = $366 + (.4)Fev
Conclusion: I lose $37.68 and about half of my future edge by calling. Joe loses $341.5 and 60% of his future edge when I call him.
I'm willing to sacriface $37.68 equity to cost Joe $341.5, because in the future it will be correct for him not to push as light. If in the future he folds his J6 in this spot I either get a walk, or call a short stacks push, with the same 60/40 edge, a result which will probably raise my equity by more than the $37.68 I lost in this game.
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