Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
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What is KUBIAK? Gary?
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A statistical projection model of the type that you hate, if memory serves. Anyway, Campbell's college pedigree and the development history of previous, similar NFL QBs suggests that Campbell will be a good QB.
That said, I don't know if you're +EV on your bet. Even assuming Campbell will probably be better than Manning, a lot can happen in two and a half years, and Campbell doesn't have the bonus-baby mega-contract that forces the team to stick with him like Manning does.
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