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Old 11-14-2007, 09:48 AM
redlotus redlotus is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Grand Rapids, MI
Posts: 21
Default Re: 25NL Boat with set on board VS river overbet

Flop: I would personally bet a litle less here. Maybe around 1/2 pot for an information raise. You're more likely to induce a raise if someone has a beter hand and I don't think your reducing the FE. Only problem with this is that you might be inducing a bluff, though.

Turn: You really, really have to raise this up to find out where you stand. Not a big fan of it, but even a min-raise is better than your flat call.

River: You're only getting 1.5 to 1 on your money, so you would have to be reasonably sure that villain bluffs about 60% in this spot. For most micro-donks, this is a monster hand--villain is trying to make up a lot of missed value on the river. I would not be surprised to see 99 here. Of course, I wouldn't be surprised to see AK here either, but that is beside the point.

Bottom line--you only have about $2.15 (~9 BBs) invested in the pot so far. I'm folding unless I've seen this guy show down air with a massive overbet on the river before. I've called these kind of overbets more than once and it has almost always been a monster.

-red
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