[rzk]

[ QUOTE ]


Firstly our odds is 7.20:2.

[/ QUOTE ]

which means the bluff needs to work 2 out of 9.2 times.

[ QUOTE ]

Secondly what hands would you bet/fold on river if you were him?


[/ QUOTE ]

this depends on how i would view the hero. against a loose passive i would bet/fold anything that beats a jack. if i knew the hero was a tag i'd just check if i didn't have an ace.

but the thing is - it doesn't matter what i'd do, it matters what players that fit the description in the OP do. yes, some players would check their QQ or whatever, but i think many players would just keep betting their whole range because they don't want to show weakness, because they don't know how to respond to a bet if they check, and because there's a chance that they will get paid off by a jack or some low pp.

i guess it's AT+ vs. discounted QQ,KK, and sometimes even lower pocket pairs that are hoping the hero was on a draw or is willing to fold a weak jack. the Ax hands i guess should also be somewhat discounted because he might not always bet the turn UI. do we get 2 out of 9.2? i don't know, maybe not, but i think it's pretty close.

EDIT: oh, and some villains will c/c AT because the flush came in, because they are afraid of a better ace, and because they don't think they get paid off much by worse hands, so AT needs to be discounted even more.