[stillnaive]

Here's my attempt at working out the math to determine whether pushing the turn is +EV based on my reads on the situation. I used rounded hand equities from PokerStove; if anyone sees a problem with my math, let me know and help me fix it.

I'd say they've got trips about 10% of the time, a gutshot about 10%, a made straight w/ flush draw about 15%, TP w/ FD or straight up four flush 30% of the time, made flush 25% of the time, air or floating, resulting in a fold to your all in bet = maybe 10% FE (that's generous).



JJ, 99, 66: 5% to 95%
AJo,KJo,QJo,JcTd,JdTc,JdTh,JdTs,JhTd,JsTd: 80% to 20%
810o w/ FD: 70% to 30%
Made straight: DEAD
Made flush: DEAD

EV=.90{.10*[.05(58.25)-.95(25.9)]+.10[.80(58.25)-.20(25.9)]+.15(-25.9)+.30[.70(58.25)-.30(25.9)]+.25(-25.9)}+.10{32.35}

Breathe!

EV=.90{.10*[-21.69]+.10[41.42]+.15(-25.9)+.30[33.01]+.25(-25.9)}+.10{32.35}

EV=.90{-2.17+4.14-3.885+9.903-6.48}+.1{32.35}

EV=.90{1.5}+.1{32.35}

EV= +$4.59

Now, the thing is, I would change up the percentages completely on any higher level, or on any type of a reasonable TAG. He's not calling that monotone board with anything but a made flush to that much pressure, IMO.