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Old 11-13-2007, 04:18 PM
signal signal is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 305
Default Re: Live 20/40 Two river check-raise attempts…

I love the river sexy on hand #2 -- seems like you will extract value a large percentage of the time with yr well disguised 2nd nut hand.

On hand #1, I am a bit skeptical; a board-pairing draw completer would mostly, IMO, cause a check behind unless he boated and therefore crushes you (would he preflop cold-call with PPs 66-99?).
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Edit: So, I am sitting here having some coffee and thought I'd calculate EV's in these cases. I chose some example numbers (based on my estimates/description of hand) and calculated Evs to show how the river situation could be case dependent.

EV(c/r) = [ Pr{heBets} * Pr{heCallsRaise} * 2BB
+ Pr{heBets} * (1 - Pr{heCallsRaise}) * 1BB ]
* Pr{yourHandisBest}
- Pr{heHasBest} * Pr{heBets}
* Pr{heRaises/YouFold} * 2BB

EV(bet) = Pr{heCalls} * 1BB * Pr{yourHandisBest}
- Pr{heCalls/Raises} * Pr{heHasBest} * 1BB

If we assume that the probability that he is best is negligible (i.e. Pr{heHasBest} << 0), then:

EV(c/r) = Pr{heBets} * Pr{heCallsRaise} * 2BB
+ Pr{heBets} * (1 - Pr{heCallsRaise}) * 1BB

EV(bet) = Pr{heCalls} * 1BB

Speculation based on hand descriptions:

Hand #1:
Pr{heBets} = 0.40
Pr{heCallsRaise} = 0.40
Pr{heCallsifYouBet} = 0.70

EV(c/r) = 0.56 BB
EV(bet) = 0.70 BB

Hand #2:
Pr{heBets} = 0.80
Pr{heCallsRaise} = 0.60
Pr{heCallsifYouBet} = 0.90

EV(c/r) = 1.28 BB
EV(bet) = 0.9 BB

OP probably has a more accurate guess as to the probabilities, but I think this at least illustrates a situational dependence.
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