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I think beting the flop isnt great. Whats sb cold called twice with? AK... you are getting called here some of the times and check raised some of the time. I think your hand is SUPER disguised if you check and make it, and you haver a real shot of stacking JJ, whereas betting the flop prices you out of the hand some of the time.


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No, he most probably called with a mid PP, but you can't fold them out without betting. He's most likely set mining (badly). If you check the flop, its you who's repping AK, and you're going to get looked up unimproved unless you get some overcard help. The disguised strength of your hand doesn't really matter, because its unlikely that he's going to stack off unless he has JJ or QQ, which is i think a pretty tiny part of his range.

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No No... you misunderstood me. Clearly villian has AK here like never, and yes it's a pocket pair alot. And his VPIP suggests he likes to peel.

Ok, what I was basically getting at is that our bet shouldnt have much F/E. When we check it looks like we have AK, which is AWESOME because when we do make our hand we can start "bluffing" quite freely. Same would apply if we had AA/KK - villians hand is pretty well defined and there if he can read our hand as AK if we check the flop then the value we extract from such deception (checking) on the next two streets should make up for not winning this pot with a c-bet (which I think isnt gonna work).

I dunno - I think checking the flop here should be +EV.