[Peleus]

Looking at the implied odds on the flop.

You have 8 outs to the flush. (8 because 1 is either in villains hand, or will make his full house if it comes, i.e. as results given a Kh comes). We can assume this without knowing results if we're sure we're up against an over pair, we won't know exactly which card will make the full, but one of them will.

That means we have to win on the next card, or as has been discussed chances are we can't continue. 8/47 outs = 17.02% chance of winning on the next card.

Lets ASSUME we are going to capture ALL of villains stack if we hit the next card (i.e. Implied odds best case). Villain has $124.80 left behind after he completes his flop action. That means we're calling $30 to win the pot (currently $39) plus his flop bet $30, plus his remaining stack, for a total of $193.80. 30/193.80 = 15.48% required to call.

Now admittedly this odds show that we have 1.54% edge on calling here, so its a very marginal call. But thats some big assumptions. Who's to say that if the Ah comes villain will stack off, change that one out and suddenly it turns a 1.54% call into a 0.60% mistake. Obviously these are very small percentages and the calling line is very close to the folding line, but I don't think its a good enough assumption to say we're going to capture all of villains stack every time enough to make this profitable.

My 2c at least, I know everyone here doesn't agree with me [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]