[betgo]

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Given the preflop action, it is likely that seat 5 has two wheel cards. There are no 5s out there. It isn't 50%, but it is more than 35% that seat 5 paired.

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I agree his hand is more likely than normal to hold a 5 and a 5 is likely the highest card he holds, but lets look at he distribution of cards unaccounted for to verify what the probability of this likelyhood is -
A - 2
2 - 1 (we can leave this out since he likely holds a 3-card hand)
3 - 3
4 - 4
5 - 3

So thats 12 unaccounted for cards within his likely range, a paired 5 accounts for 25% of the range. If we open seat 5's range to include 3-card 6's on 3rd street then there is a 20% chance he paired the 5.


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You made a big math mistake. Seat 5 has 2 hole cards. If it is 20% each one is a 5, it is close to 40% one of his hole cards is a 5.