[*TT*]

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Given the preflop action, it is likely that seat 5 has two wheel cards. There are no 5s out there. It isn't 50%, but it is more than 35% that seat 5 paired.

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I agree his hand is more likely than normal to hold a 5 and a 5 is likely the highest card he holds, but lets look at he distribution of cards unaccounted for to verify what the probability of this likelyhood is -
A - 2
2 - 1 (we can leave this out since he likely holds a 3-card hand)
3 - 3
4 - 4
5 - 3

So thats 12 unaccounted for cards within his likely range, a paired 5 accounts for 25% of the range. If we open seat 5's range to include 3-card 6's on 3rd street then there is a 20% chance he paired the 5.

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Also, seat 1 has a very slight advantage with a 9 over a Q, particularly 3-way.

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3-way hero's equity is 20% on 4th street assuming seat 1 has a 3-card 7 on 3rd street and seat 5 has a 3-card 5. If we tighten up seat 1's range to a 3-card 6 or 5 the hero's equity gets even smaller by a few percentage points. Heads up seat 1 is a small dog vs seat 5, and heads up you are a 32.5% -35% dog vs the 9's range.


So now that we know the hero's equity is around 20% that means his share of the immediate pot is 2.9 small bets when he calls vs two opponents with far better boards than the hero. Now assuming that at a minimum the pot will be 17.73 SB and the hero will usually contribute 2 SB on this street alone that means the pot is really 8.865SB (I am using this only as a benchmark, we could spend the time weighing the odds by making seat 5 3-bet 80% of the time and we could also estimate that seat one will raise 80% or more of the time to jam but I don't think its necessary since these scenarios only make the odds being laid to the hero worse). Since hero's equity is 20% on average that means his share of the pot will usually be 1.773 small bets.

Now if anyone here can honestly tell me they would call on 4th street knowing that their equity share will be 1.8SB at best if seat 5 doesn't 3-bet then I want to play with that person every day [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

All joking aside betgo's mistake is a common one made by expert players, I really don't blame him for misunderstanding here since its so common. But if you want to be a world class player then you have to separate yourself from the experts, this hand on 4th street is a good example of a situation where a world class player would adjust. Experts try to outplay their opponents by peeling one street, world class players know that through careful hand reading and logic the deck is stacked against him to do so. I strive to be world class (I am not and I would never pretend to be at that level), I know you do too. I hope you take the time to absorb this thread because its not easy to admit an error when you have been playing one way for so long. Feel free to PM me if you have questions that I need to revisit, I need to take a break from this thread because it sucked up too much time today [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]