[yourface]

I think we can all agree that the best turn line is b/f

if we get called on the turn it leads to a more interesting river decision. the PPs that we can get value from are outweighed by the ton of Ax combinations that a LP can have, plus he will sometimes be slowplaying a monster like trip Ts.

messing around with stove I think we have around 30% equity (edit)when villain calls or raises our bet on a brick river . also I don't expect villain to value bet any of the hands we beat after we check to him. I do think that he'll probably VB every hand that beats up unless he can show up with KK

the pot size will be ~7BB, so if villain is bluffing more than 1/8 of the time (7 times we lose 1BB, 1 time we win 7BB = breakeven) we should be calling. 1/8 is 12.5% of the time.

so if we expect villain to bluff less than 12.5% of the time we should c/f. if we expect him to bluff between 12.5% and 30% of the time we should b/f because we lose less on that river bet. if we expect him to buff more than 30% of the time we should c/c.

does that look right?