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Old 11-12-2007, 05:26 PM
BlueEcho BlueEcho is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Hopefully abusing the bubble
Posts: 746
Default Re: tough/interesting spot in 3$

[ QUOTE ]
This is a fold IMO. The problems with the call:

* As YNnOs mentioned you are at best even money (with some death money in the pot, but not much: 435. Not enough to compensate IMO). Really favorable situations are so rare here, I think it's probably -cEV or maybe +-.
* You're up against two opponents who both could have a hand that has you crushed. The table has been playing tight, so most of the time they both have a hand (ep raiser and R). It's not so likely that the re-raiser has AA or KK (to big a raise for those hands), so I think he usually has AK, AQs (less likely), QQ-TT. It's not really bad, but not really interesting either to play AK against that range.
* Imagine the re-raiser has JJ, and the original raiser folds AJ (or even worse AK) to the all-in and your call. Now you are 45% or so, but one of your 'out's' (the A) is already folded. The KJ's etc in his range make it even more likely that he does have one of your outs (the more K's he play's...).
* There are 5 people behind you. This only slightly influences the decission
* The fact that it's Turbo, doesn't mean that you have to gamble this early. You probably have an edge in the push-fold game later on.
* Be more interested in getting involved with the smaller stacks (seats 2-6)
* If it's so hard to think of a really good scenario, I prefer a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

While this is well thought out, it's incorrect. Your hand ranges are to tight for a $3 turbo and in 10 minutes you won't be deep at all (you aren't that deep right now).

It's a shove. You need chips to stay in the game, you have AK get em in.
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