[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
lindy,

are we then calling a turn 3 bang?

also, if we raise and he calls and donks a diamond river, is it a call?


[/ QUOTE ]

Good questions.

First, we note that villain is getting 6.5:2 to bluff 3-bet, and 7.5:1 to semibluff 3-bet. On this draw heavy board, villain will have tons of semibluff 3-betting opportunities, so I think we should pay attention to this number. Our folds need to be rare enough that villain is wrong to 3-bet all of his draws. That means we can fold at most 1 time every 8.5 times we raise the turn. Further, since villain's 3-bets all have good equity vs our turn raising range, we need to fold even less often then that. Let's say something like 1 fold for every 10 or 11 hands we play.

Now that we've decided to fold the worst 10% of our range ot a 3-bet, we ask ourselves... which hands are those? To get at the answers, we need to fine-tune our understanding of our turn range. What hands are in our bet / call flop, raise turn range?


This is a difficult question and gets at your plan for playing your entire range throughout the hand. With what hands are you going to 3-bet the flop? etc.

For now, let's assume that you don't 3-bet anything on the flop, because I think it's an instructive border case. In that case, we should probably raise the turn with, say, A8+, based on the arguments in my first post in this thread.

Range calculator says:

There are 67 combinations in the range {55,88+,AT,KTs, QTs, JTs, T8s+,A8} on this board (Td 8d 5c Tc)

Now, by default, we also want to mix in a few semibluffs and to make our turn raising range more balanced (otherwise opponent gets away by bet/folding too easily). How many hands should we bluff / semibluff raise? Well, let's add some diamond draws because they have excellent equity, and some straight draws because they allow us to have a few bluffs in our river betting range should a diamond hit. Villain will be getting 6.5:1 to call our turn raise, and we have 67 combinations of value raising hands, so let's throw in about 10 semibluff raises for balance.

any J9s(4), 97d, 76d, QJd, Q9d, AQd, AKd, AJd

That's 11 combinations total, and looks like a reasonable range to me.

So that brings our turn raising to 78 combinations. What are the worst 10% of this range that we fold? That's 8 combinations we're looking for. Since we aren't folding any of our draws, that leaves the made hands.

A8 = 12 combinations... oops, that's already too many. So maybe we raise / fold with A8 whenever we hold the 8 of hearts.

Conclussion? Call the 3-bet with 99 by default.

What about our turn range? Well, if we 3-bet more often with made hands, then 99 becomes a stronger part of our made hand range and we should be even more inclined to call.

Finally, can we change our default play to take advantage of this opponent? Let's check the read... laggy postflop, perhaps FPS... nope! We certainly can't fold MORE than the default amount against this guy. In fact, it could lead us to raise more made hands, and call down more 3-bets in an attempt to exploit the fact that his 3-bets skew his range toward draws.


Next post: what if he calls turn, donks river diamond?

good luck.
Eric