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Old 11-12-2007, 03:18 PM
Jaqrabbit Jaqrabbit is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 143
Default Re: $16 - Overcards on scary board

The chance of flopping a flush is about 4%, I think (been a while since I've run the numbers, so this may not be quite right). So given you have three other players in, I think it's about a 12% chance that one of them flopped a flush, which means 1 time in 8, you're crushed and drawing only to the boat or quads. I wouldn't worry about a pair bigger than yours, and JJ/TT doesn't feel likely here since nobody else raised pf, and SB & MP1 both checked ahead of you (with that flop, they'd have to bet a set), but any set probably does call here.

With a bet this size, you're offering 1.5:1 odds, which means any flush or straight draws aren't getting the odds to call. OESD/FD might call, but there aren't many of those (you've got two queens, so KQ,Q9 are not real likely, and I don't think 89o calls the raise pf).

The only other hand I'd worry about calling is TJs, for two pair, but even that might fold given the cruddy odds and the 3 clubs out there, and since there's only 3 ways for that to come up here, I think you're pretty safe.

So to summarize my rambling, I think you're already beat very infrequently, and you only get called rarely by draws.

I like sence's line here, since it gets some value from draws w/pair that don't make it. It also wins the pot right here a lot, while risking fewer of your chips than the shove (though you'd only fold here if the other three went nuts after your bet).
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