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Old 11-12-2007, 02:52 PM
Jaqrabbit Jaqrabbit is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 143
Default Re: 33$ - 22 facing push - learning experience =)

Let's say he shoves any two cards. If he's on any pocket pair, you're dominated (he's 82% to win). If he's on any two random cards that don't include a two, you're about 55% to win - if he's suited and/or connected, that eats into your edge a bit, but it's still a race.

If he's got a 2 (unlikely, since you have half of them) and any higher card you've got much better edge (don't know the odds off-hand). If he's got the other two 2s, it's a chop (barring a 4 card flush). This is highly unlikely to the point I'd probably discard the possibility just to make the analysis easier at the table.

So basically, best likely scenario is a race. Given your chip count and the fact that the BB (also a shorty) is yet to act, I think I fold here (if I push, I REALLY don't want to see the BB call behind).

You're definitely in push/fold territory, but given that the blinds just passed you, I think I wait for a better spot.
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