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Old 11-12-2007, 01:36 PM
elindauer elindauer is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: analyzing hand ranges
Posts: 2,966
Default Re: top boat scary river 4/8 live

[ QUOTE ]
Not betting is bad.

Folding to a raise is terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe that "not betting" is the default play on this board given your hand range. So to claim that this play is "bad" suggests that you know something about the players in this hand that wasn't given in the OP. Do you?

To claim that not betting is bad, you'd have to believe that it's common for players in this game to call the river with hands you can beat. But what hands are those?? Pocket pairs were counterfeited on the turn... do we really think these players are so bad that they are calling the turn with holding 88 and playing AAQQ8 as their hand? Seems like quite a stretch to me.

I think that betting is just asking to lose more to the case Q, while almost never delivering value. Worse, you're in fact going to lose that extra bet to the case Q quite often, as this hand going down between any not-completely-idiotic opponents will virtually always have you being shown quads at showdown.

thanks,
Eric
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