Re: T7s vs lagtag
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I don't think I'm folding UI--given the description, there's a possibility he's on a draw, and with the pair we will beat that draw.
That said, a lot of his range (sets) will also have the trips or two pair crushed, so I like a c/c unless we hit our flush.
I'm not sure I'd go for a river c/r as we've played the hand like a flush draw--I think our turn play looks like an obvious semibluff from villain's standpoint. Why not donk a spade?
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We could probably go around all day about whether or not to fold UI but that's not what concerns me. I think the c/r is easy because villain will be betting any river. If he's on a draw he's going to bluff at it and, I think this is the vast majority of the time, his hand is so big he'll value bet any river card.
Villain is going to bet the river almost always because it's just as likely we could be semi-bluffing a straight draw as a flush draw. So even if the spade came in he would have to bluff at the pot or valuebet because we'd play a straight draw the same way. Why wouldn't he bet the river after taking this line?
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