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Old 11-12-2007, 09:48 AM
Ansky Ansky is offline
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Default Re: a hand vs PA, 200/400 HU

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I think a flop 3bet is really good. I don't see him bluff-4betting, and it's going to be very hard for him to play a hand like TT.

River is ugly because the flush+ is a pretty reasonable part of your range, so I don't know how often he's bluffing. Does he check an overpair on the river? Or the turn? Does he bet smaller on the turn with an overpair? Sucks that basically no lower flushes are in his range and it seem like he either has one of those or a boat. I think it's a fold but I would probably call in practice.

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I think a flop 3bet is a massive mistake, for a couple reasons. It might be ok if the board was like 742 w/ 2 clubs , but the fact that the board is paired, as well as the fact that we are 80k deep- not 60k or 40k makes 3betting a real big mistake. I doubt you get a fold from bigish hands, and you probably get played back at w/ a lot of bigger draws.

g-p,

I think given the read given, raising turn would be a mistake. I would not mind at all calling the turn and calling like 99% of river cards vs someone who is so likely to vbet worse or bluff off chips.

Krantz,
I think in these spots you always think people are more FOS than they actually are (I don't mean you specifically). The major problem with calling is that he really can have any boat since he calls so light preflop, as well as most better flushes. I think we are up against a total bluff... or a fairly large range of valuebetting hands. I wouldn't use the history to talk myself into calling here, I think this is a fold.

I think meta wise it is a bit painful to fold a hand as good as 8 high flush here given how insanely aggro he is playing, but I can count on more than 2 hands the amount of times I have wanted badly to fold a hand and told myself I "had" to call... hopefully i dont do that too much anymore.

PA KNOWS you know his crazy image, and he also knows you cant be calling that turn too light. If you are calling the flop he prob thinks your range is flush draw, any pair, probably lots of ace highs, some other straight draws. When you call the turn barrel i suspect he doesnt put you on as light of a range.

I really am tempted by a call because I think he follows through on a bluff so often on a board like this, but overall i think it's a real close fold.
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