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Old 11-12-2007, 12:39 AM
thing85 thing85 is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: 100NL but I like uNL too much to leave
Posts: 3,672
Default 50NL: 2-pair facing a shove on the flop vs. a donk

Villain is 58/7.5/2 over 147 hands.

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG: $87.55
MP: $31.10
CO: $98.50
Hero (BTN): $49.25
SB: $41.70
BB: $68.85

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.50, MP calls $2.50

Flop: ($9.75) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, MP checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $8</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $84.55 and is All-In</font>, MP folds, Hero?

I'm getting like 1.25 to 1 here and villain is pretty unpredictable. I haven't seen him do anything crazy, but I play 9 tables and don't watch him in hands that I'm not involved with. He limps PF, so I'm thinking AK, AQ, JJ+ is outside of his range. Even if I am behind here, I have 4 outs for a full house as well as a back door flush draw (worth maybe 1 out?) I'll put his possible range in poker stove, but I want to see what others think and/or if the range I put him seems accurate. Output:

Board: Kh Jd Qd


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.766% 60.44% 02.32% 123263 4741.00 { QhJh }
Hand 1: 37.234% 34.91% 02.32% 71195 4741.00 { TT, AJs-A2s, K2s+, Q7s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, AJo-ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o }



According to this, a call would be bad, but I'd like to hear other thoughts on his range and/or my play.
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