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Old 11-11-2007, 10:45 PM
MoonOrb MoonOrb is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Somewhere in the South Pacific
Posts: 75
Default Re: Best possible drawing hands

That comment doesn't change anything. There are two issues. First, whether or not you're a favorite to win the hand. Clearly, with a straight flush draw and two overcards, you are. Second, whether the pot odds on each street justify a call if you're bet into.

As a roughly 75% favorite to win the hand after the flop, you should have been raising for value. But let's suppose you just called (or suppose that you did raise for value and your bet was called). In any event, the turn comes and it's unhelpful for you. Your opponent bets out. Now you have a pot odds problem. With one street left, you have to count your outs again. It's possible now that the turn card helped your opponent, giving him either 2 pair or 3 of a kind, meaning your K-Q overcard outs are no good. You're now down to 15 outs. That gives you a slightly less than one-third probability of making your hand on the river. So just compare the size of the bet you have to call to the amount you expect to win if you make your hand and you'll know whether the call is appropriate.

This could put you in the situation where it would be correct to call an all-in bet (or make an all-in raise if you thought your opponent would call it) on the flop but incorrect on the turn.

But it still does not change the fact that after the flop, you're more than a 2:1 favorite to win.
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