[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
i know villan makes straight on turn. my instinct says the numbers are really close. call or fold? what does stove say?

[/ QUOTE ] sqwisssssss -I don't know what "stove" is.

$18.25*3 + $37.40 = $92.15

That's what's in the pot.

It costs you $37.40 to call.

Therefore you're getting
92.15/37.40 = 2.46/1 or 2.46 to 1 to call.

Meanwhile, since you have one of your own outs for the board pairing, there are only 9 river cards that can make you quads or a full house (J,T,T,2,2,2,9,9,9).

If Villain does have the straight, he either has KQYZ, Q8YZ, or 87YZ. In any of these cases he has two of your bricks and none of your outs. Thus if Villain does have the straight, there are
44-9-2=33 bricks (cards that don't make you a full house or quads). Therefore the odds against you making a full house or quads are 33 to 9 or 33/9 = 3.67/1.

In other words, the odds against you making a full house or quads (I call them "hand odds") are 3.67 to 1 (against).

Since the odds against you making your full house or quads are substantially greater than the pot odds you are getting, and since you have no implied pot odds here because Villain is all-in, we say you have "unfavorable odds" to draw for the board to pair. Another way of saying what amounts to the same thing is saying you have an unfavorable e.v. or a negative e.v.

However, there's another important consideration:
Villain goes all-in, thus taking away your implied pot odds in case you are drawing, and thus making a draw less favorable.
This is a situation where it is not uncommon for Villain to be bluffing.

And now you have to decide if Villain is bluffing or not.

You don't have favorable odds to draw if there is no chance Villain is bluffing.

But if Villain would bluff here more than about one fourth then you should call.
Here's my algebraic formulation for the one fourth:[list]
(-33/42*37.40+9/42*92.15)(1-B)+92.15B =0.
Solve for B, the bluffing break even
point. B=0.242, if I did the math right.

So is Villain going to bluff here at least one time out of four? If so, it behooves you to call. If not, fold.

You have to decide.

Buzz