Re: Real Estate Market Timing
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A friend of mine also made a good analogy.
"In golf, we always say, 'drive for show, putt for dough', because putting is where the real differentiation comes. In finance, 'macro analysis for show, micro for dough' is pretty accurate too".
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Although I agree with what you say about macro vs micro analysis, Warren Buffet has said he would rather have a bad manager in a good business then a good manager in a bad business. To me, this implies you at least want to be confident that the long term demographics of your investment look good. In Real Estate I don't think you want to try and time markets as you imply, I think you want to buy relatively good value in a good area (future growth prospects)with a debt structure that allows staying power. Buying cash flow cheap and getting positive cash flow has always made more sense to me then speculation on house appreciation with high leverage.
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