Re: EPT Dublin, how do u react to the mistake of the guy
I disagree with Bond about the villains pf hand range being very tight. I have seen many good players calling a 12k raise with 80k effective stacks with any pocketpair or even suited connectors hoping to get lucky on the flop. It is my impression that "spanish guy who likes to float etc." is the type of player who would make a loosish call pf when he is chip leader.
I think that it is fairly standard for him to check the flop to the agressor pretty much whenever he hits his hand. I also think that it is fairly standard for you to check behind when you hit a set of kings/TPTK on this flop and it is also common as short as you are to check behind with TT-QQ too. The only hand that most pf 3bettors really bet on this flop with regularity are AA/AQ.
If he is a level 1 or level 2 thinking player his attempted turn bet doesn't make much sense with 99/KK/AK because it would make more sense for him to structure his bets at 20k and 50k on the river than to bet 32.5k and leave him with 35k behind (though it is possible that he thought you had more chips than you did... did he ask for a count at any time during the hand?). Theoretically he would try to get you to call at least one time if he had a pat hand. That said, I don't really think his hand looks like a draw at all. It just seems like a terrible bet with clubs (a check-shove would be so much better) because if you call he can't reasonably expect to ever bluff you out on the river and if you shove he is not getting odds to hit and he is loosing a bunch of chips. It is actually tough to put him on a hand that he would that much with on the turn (unless he thought you had 100k). The only hand that really comes to mind is AA.
The fact that you did not raise the turn seems to discount the fact that you have AK.
On the river his bet could still be AA, or a total bluff hoping to knock you off your JJ/QQ. I don't think that there is any reason to think that he is trying to knock you off of JJ/QQ because his attempted turn bet is so fishy.
If you called I would expect to see AA from him a lot.
|