View Single Post
  #4  
Old 11-10-2007, 07:09 PM
matrix matrix is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: UK
Posts: 7,050
Default Re: 25 NL - What implied odds should I get to call?

[ QUOTE ]
Therefore, I'm getting 6.25 to 1 implied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

no.

nonononono.

Here is how to calculate your implied odds.

(pot + the bet size you have to call + remaining effective stack after you call) x % chance that villain calls a bet on the river IF you hit your hand. This is assuming you are ahead when you make the hand. You divide this number by the amount you have to call to get the x:1 figure.

So in this hand it's (8.85+7.25+22.15)x how often he calls a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] river with a worse hand.

If he calls 100% of the time with a worse hand your implied odds are 38.25 to 7.25 or ~5 to 1.

(you can guesstimate a ballpark figure at the table by saying 35:7 = 5:1 and it's slightly more than that...)

If we make a conservative guesstimate that 70% of the time he calls with a worse hand when we make the flush then we are only getting implied odds of 26.77:7.25 = ~3.7 to 1.

Basically implied odds are the ratio of immediate risk to the value you expect to get - and you can't expect to get called everytime you make teh hand you are drawing to.

It's ot a good plan to justify drawing to weak hands given the board texture and opponents tendancies by greatly overestimating your implied odds.

e.g. in the OP hand there are TWO Aces on board - if our villain here is a bit of a donk i) he might often have Ace rag that made a boat ii) donks fear 3flush boards often and tend to fold hands facing a big bet when the flush hits. This slashes our implied odds considerably and you have to take this into account.

As a general rule of thumb in most raised (but not reraised) pots you have good implied odds preflop and on the flop - and bad implied odds on the turn/river. You almost never have good implied odds in 3bet pots (assuming 100bb stacks all round)

as far as the hand goes - bet closer to pot on the flop - and fold if raised.
Reply With Quote