Re: Small pair preflop
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This might be an extreme example but if in this hand after SB raises BB UTG and CO all fold then it's only 5:1. Is that too unrealistic?
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Even then I think it's correct to call. At worst, your equity is 18.5% against a higher PP, and each time you're not facing a higher PP. A lot of the time you're facing two overcards. Against those hands, your equity is slightly over 50%. If you think the raise represents AA-TT , AKs, AKo, and AQs only, you're a 2:1 underdog in the hand.
(AA-TT, 30 combos where your equity is roughly 20% + AKs-AQs, 20 combos where your equity is roughly 50%; .2 + .12=.32).
Of course, it's not as if you're all in; you still have to play the flop, turn, and river. But if we were to assume that you c/c to the showdown, you'd be putting in 2 more SB and 2 BB at the most, and the pot would contain 8 SB + 4 BB for a total of 8 BB, and from the point that the action is on your after the SB's raise, you'd be putting in 3 of them. This is slightly more than your equity, but the extra bets you win when you hit a set and the bets you save when you fold when an A hits the flop should make up for this.
Does this sound reasonable? Or have I [censored] this all up?
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